Shell New Lens Scenario’s (2013, page 74):
In the 2020s, a series of unusually violent storms leads
to sea level surges in Asia, wreaking massive flood
damage on major coastal cities. Governments respond
by hurriedly building dykes, new storm deflection
barriers, and new energy infrastructure, especially
wind and solar parks. But a decade later, another
series of unusual floods destroy these deflection
barriers and infrastructure.
The rich have provided generators and other energy
survival mechanisms for themselves, but the poor
demand that the government finds a culprit to pay for
this round of repairs. In addition, rich and poor alike
insist that something be done about the ‘root cause’ –
namely, to reduce CO2 emissions dramatically
within a generation.
In response to this social consensus, fossil fuels
are taxed heavily upstream to pay for infrastructure
adaptations required by the new climate realities.
Eventually, these costs are passed on to the endconsumers,
but in the beginning they catch the
fossil industry completely off-guard.
In this new world, gas is preferred above coal,
and biofuels are mandated into the fuel mix at a
dizzyingly accelerated pace. By the late 2030s,
the deployment of CCS is accelerating as well.
Regulation for ‘appropriate’ energy end-use emerges.
This includes mandates for building in resilience such
as zero-emission housing, integrated solar PV, or wind
power and mini-combined heat and power (CHP).
Transport demand is reduced by redesigning cities
into more compact forms with logistics hubs, giving
preference to low-carbon solutions (electrified public
transport). These limit the opportunity for car use.