PRESS RELEASE, 12 November 2025
Current Policies Scenario (CPS) contrasts with other IEA scenarios that show fossil fuel use will peak soon
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reintroduced the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) in its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025, published today. CPS describes a pathway with growing oil and gas demand, leading to global warming of 2.9°C in 2100, a level scientists warn would cause catastrophic climate impacts.
“CPS is a warning of the bleak future that fossil fuel companies wish to pursue,” says Mark van Baal, founder of Follow This.
According to the IEA, CPS is not a “business-as-usual” scenario; it assumes that governments around the world abandon their stated intentions and that the uptake of new technologies slows.
“CPS is a wake-up call, not a forecast. It shows that we must avoid backtracking. Fortunately, investors and politicians have all the tools they need to choose a better path.”
“Politicians should back clean energy and stop favouring and subsidizing fossil fuels.”
“Institutional investors should use their influence to make oil and gas companies stop drilling for more oil and gas and start investing in clean energy.”
“The gap between the CPS and NZE scenarios shows exactly how much power investors have. Every investment decision can move us closer to 1.5°C or push us toward 2.9°C. Investors hold the key.”
“While NZE is the most essential scenario to prevent catastrophic climate change, APS is currently the most realistic, but insufficient. Leaders know they must step up ambitions.”
US pressure
The CPS was reportedly reinstated after pressure from the United States. In September, Bloomberg reported that the IEA justified the inclusion of CPS because “there is a great emphasis in some countries, notably in the United States, on preserving the energy status quo rather than changing it.” Politico also revealed that Trump officials had pressured the world’s top energy agency to weaken its climate focus.
The different IEA scenarios
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE)
Outlines a pathway consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. This scenario assumes immediate and deep reductions in fossil fuel use, rapid clean energy deployment, and full implementation of the Paris Agreement goals.
Announced Pledges Scenario (APS, updated 2024)
Reflects full implementation of all climate pledges made by governments. Even if realized, these pledges are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The IEA will update APS once all countries have submitted updates to their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS, updated 2025)
Assumes that only existing policies are implemented, without new commitments. This scenario results in global warming of around 2.5°C.
Current Policies Scenario (CPS, retired 2020, updated 2025)
Favours fossil fuels over renewable energy and represents a continuation of today’s policies without additional climate measures. This pathway leads to 2.9°C of warming.
